I’ve mentored several friends and relatives in starting up small businesses. The first years were always a struggle, because they were trying to find ways to efficiently bring in new customers. Once a way was found, things got much easier. Developing a back end (i.e., selling other, usually more-expensive products to existing customers) is relatively easy, as is refining operations.
A typical business start-up of this kind will break even or lose a little money in year one, make a decent salary for the owner in year two, and provide a substantial bonus—in addition to a good, arm’s-length management salary—in year three. After that, it’s usually straight uphill.
If your scope is seven years or less, there is only one answer: Start a business. You can’t start a capital-intensive business with $18,000. You can’t, for example, open a restaurant or create a new line of pharmaceuticals. But you don’t want to be in those businesses anyway. (The risk/reward ratio isn’t working for you.) Much better to start a business selling something you know about—such as gardening or collecting beer steins or taking care of pets. You can start a little business like this for a few thousand dollars if you start small and go slowly—at first.
It’s true. And you will probably never hear this from any other wealth-building “expert.” Unless you have more than $25,000 to invest, you probably shouldn’t be investing in individual stocks—and you definitely shouldn’t be trading options and futures.
The reason is simple: You want to get wealthy in 7 to 15 years— preferably in less than 7. There is no way that $25,000 can turn into something that even sounds like wealth in that amount of time— hough there are a lot of professional investment gurus who will tell you otherwise. In fact, there is a huge, multi-billion-dollar business that is determined to snow you on this issue.
I made a point of explaining what a beginning wealth builder shouldn’t do.
1. First, when figuring your investable net worth, you really shouldn’t count the equity in your present home unless you plan to sell it and buy a less expensive home during retirement. And even if you do that, you can count only the difference between what your house is currently worth, the mortgage, and what it will cost you to buy another house that you’ll be happy with. Using the example of our dissatisfied conference attendee, he admitted that there was little or no hope of finding a nice retirement home in a community he liked for less than the equity he had in his present house.
2. Next, you shouldn’t be investing in stocks and options if your investable net worth is less than $25,000. In our example, the gentleman was playing the stock market with his entire savings: $18,000. Think about the risk this guy was taking!
So now you know how I feel about stocks, small business, and real estate. Bonds? I love bonds. Especially if you invest in them the way I do: Buy them. Be happy with the guaranteed return. And forget about them.
With this perspective made clear, you will see some sense in the following four model portfolios, each based on a stage of wealth building.
• Stage One: Your investable net worth is less than $25,000.
• Stage Two: Your investable net worth is between $25,000 and $100,000.
• Stage Three: Your investable net worth is more than $100,000 but less than you need to be financially independent.
• Stage Four: You are financially independent.
I believe we are at the tail end of a nationwide real estate bubble. By any fundamental perspective, property prices have gotten out of hand. In some locations, this may mean a significant depreciation. In other, better locations (the Sun Belt, certain cities), it may mean a two- to four-year deflation of 10 percent or 15 percent. The worst depreciation will probably occur with condominiums, which are traditionally overpriced, overfinanced, and too heavily owned by speculators during bubble periods. That said, I’m confident that you will be able to find good real estate deals this year, next year, and each year thereafter during the downturn.
