So now you know how I feel about stocks, small business, and real estate. Bonds? I love bonds. Especially if you invest in them the way I do: Buy them. Be happy with the guaranteed return. And forget about them.

With this perspective made clear, you will see some sense in the following four model portfolios, each based on a stage of wealth building.

• Stage One: Your investable net worth is less than $25,000.
• Stage Two: Your investable net worth is between $25,000 and $100,000.
• Stage Three: Your investable net worth is more than $100,000 but less than you need to be financially independent.
• Stage Four: You are financially independent.

I believe we are at the tail end of a nationwide real estate bubble. By any fundamental perspective, property prices have gotten out of hand. In some locations, this may mean a significant depreciation. In other, better locations (the Sun Belt, certain cities), it may mean a two- to four-year deflation of 10 percent or 15 percent. The worst depreciation will probably occur with condominiums, which are traditionally overpriced, overfinanced, and too heavily owned by speculators during bubble periods. That said, I’m confident that you will be able to find good real estate deals this year, next year, and each year thereafter during the downturn.

I’m no Donald Trump. I don’t even consider myself a professional real estate investor. I’m a professional marketer who has made real estate investing a nice sideline business. But in the 11 years that I’ve been doing it, my real estate portfolio has grown and grown. As an income producer, real estate has never failed to provide me with less than a very substantial income. As an asset builder, my rental real estate properties have all paid for themselves and provided me with a rate of return that is at least 10 times what I’ve been able to get from stocks and bonds.

I’m bullish on entrepreneurship. And I’m at least as bullish on real estate. Stocks are much riskier than real estate—to me—because (1) I’ve lost money investing in stocks and/or stock funds time and again and (2) I’ve seen so many others lose money. Again, I do believe that the stock market has been and will continue to be a pretty good long-term investment. But long term as far as the market goes is a 10- to 20-year time frame. Since we are concerned with getting wealthy in 7 to 15 years (and since the market is currently overvalued, from a fundamentalist’s point of view), I don’t feel confident in stocks.

Nevertheless, since I began actively investing in real estate—about 11 years ago—I have never lost money on a single transaction. The worst two deals I’ve been in since my first big lesson (i.e., disaster) produced yields of 7 percent and 12 percent annually. And that’s not including tax benefits—which were significant. Most of the real estate investments I’ve made have been good to great.

You can reduce the risk in starting your own small business by sticking closely to what you already know. By “what you know,” I mean (1) the product or service you are selling and (2) the primary method by which you are going to sell it.

Serially successful entrepreneurs follow this formula. They spend thousands of hours figuring out how a particular business works—and once they understand it, they seldom jump into something entirely different.

My own rule for starting a new business is this: One baby step at a time. By that, I mean that I’m willing to try something new—but just a little new. If, for example, I’ve learned how to sell cat food with banner ads on the Internet, I might consider setting up a business that sells cat food with small ads in magazines. (That’s one baby step. If I can’t figure out magazine advertising, I can get out quickly and safely.) But I wouldn’t let myself get into a business that sold cat health-care products through direct mail—even if I could convince myself that I’m an expert in selling cat products. Selling cat health-care products through direct mail is simply too many steps away from my core competence.

If you develop expertise in a particular business and don’t stray too far from it, you’ll always feel confident that you can create a new business without taking a lot of risk.