This rule will impact each mortgage transaction, including applications (which are the basis for a Good Faith Estimate) as well as originations (which are the basis for a HUD-1). The following data indicate the volume of business that will be impacted by the rule.

Single-family mortgage originations doubled during the 1990s, rising from $458 billion in 1990 to $1,048 billion in 2000, then doubling during the refinancing wave of 2001 to $2,215 billion, before rising further during the continued refinancing waves of 2002 and 2003 to $2,885 billion and $3,945 billion, respectively. According to OFHEO, originations were approximately $3 trillion during 2004 ($2,920 billion), 2005 ($3,120 billion) and 2006 ($$2,980 billion).2 Originations are highest during years of refinancing; for example, the refinance share was one-half or more during the origination years of 2001 (57 percent), 2002 (59 percent), and 2003 (70 percent). In their March 2007 forecasts, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and the Mortgage Bankers Association of America projected a normal home purchase environment during 2008, as the average projected mortgage origination volume (over the three organizations) was almost $2.4 trillion. This serves as the basis for the baseline projection of $2,400 billion used in this economic analysis.